Analysis of the Rupiah Exchange Rate in Indonesia
Keywords:
money supply, BI rate, foreign exchange reserves, export, exchange rateAbstract
Exchange rates are essential in the global economy, affecting international trade and a country's economic stability and monetary policy. The study aimed to determine how much influence the Money Supply, BI Rate, Foreign Exchange Reserves, and Exports have on the Rupiah Exchange Rate over the US Dollar. This research is quantitative. The data used is secondary data in the form of monthly time series data from 2015-2023. The data is analysed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. The long-term VECM estimation results show that the money supply variable is negative and significant to the exchange rate. The BI Rate variable has a negative and insignificant effect on the exchange rate, while foreign exchange reserves and Exports have a positive and significant impact on the exchange rate. The short-term VECM estimation results show that the money supply variable has a negative and insignificant effect on the exchange rate. In contrast, the BI rate has a positive and negligible effect on the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves have a negative and significant impact on the exchange rate, and exports have a positive and insignificant effect on the exchange rate. These findings have significant implications for policymakers and investors, providing insights into the factors influencing the Rupiah Exchange Rate and guiding monetary policy decisions and international trade decisions.
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